/post hoc, ergo propter hoc

# post hoc, ergo propter hoc

(latin: after this, therefore because of this)

• because an event occurred first, it must have caused this later event —used to describe a fallacious argument
• a formula designating an error in logic that accepts as a cause something that merely occurred earlier in time

The best examples of this type of reasoning are in politics. But everywhere I look I read and hear people, even “scientific” people confusing correlation with causation. The issue of Global Warming is one huge post hoc fallacy. While it may be the case that human combustion of fossil fuels has increased carbon dioxide levels which have increased global surface temperatures leading to global climate change there is no Proof.  The thermodynamical cycles of the planet are way too complicated and the number of factors and volume of data so immense it is impossible to point to one cause.

I personally believe that reducing our emissions of GHGs is responsible environmental  and strategic policy. Also, reducing our dependence on a limited resource and developing alternative fuels is more advantageous economically, environmentally and politically.

## Blog topics:

• Prime Numbers

• Physics of Softball
• Eldritch horror
• suggesting the operation of supernatural forces
• Ambrose Bierce
• H.P. Lovecraft
• Alien geometries
• College update
• Softball update

• The Eclipse (I’m still gathering information)
• Similarity between consciousness and the Universe

#### http://nautil.us/issue/50/emergence/the-strange-similarity-of-neuron-and-galaxy-networks

• The Rime of the Ancient Mariner – Samuel Taylor Coleridge

Ah! well a-day! what evil looks
Had I from old and young!
Instead of the cross, the Albatross

• Places named after numbers

Names that start with M are Messier objects that Charles Messier “discovered”
NGC xxxx stands for New Galactic Catalog
Many of the rest derive their names from Greek and Roman mythologies

## Calculus (are these even real numbers)

I’m testing out an add-on for Google Docs called gmath and equatio that supposedly let’s me type formulae using a LaTex editor. There is also a plugin for my wordpress theme that supports LaTex. It would be nice to become with these tools because right now I still do all of these by hand. For one thing it is way faster and there are no limitations on the notation I opt to use in my equations. When dealing with computer programming, no matter how “smart” it is I don’t think it can make intuitive leaps of logic and reasoning beyond what it has already been programmed to do. Imagine (and this might already be the case – I am not as current as I pretend to be) that I could take a picture of a handwritten problem with my phone, upload it to a central calculus cloud and it shoots back a text with the solution. Now that would be worth inventing.

$\displaystyle f_{rec} = \frac{c+v_{mobile}}{c} f_{em}$

There are also some pretty nifty websites that will walk you through a lot of problems. They have their limitations, as I’ve already found out but it is still a great to verify a solution or seek an alternative method for a complex problem. I have only tested it with single variable calculus so I will reserve judgement for now. If anyone feels up to it I will include the link here: https://www.symbolab.com/. There are apps for download and a graphing calculator as well. No need to lug around that TI-85 anymore.

How sweet are these calculators! I remember getting one in high school in around 1992 or so and they are still on the market today! The new ones have color screens and USB ports but, those things didn’t exist when I was in high school.

## Pinewood Derby

My next project, once softball season is over in August, will be to bring back the Pinewood Derby. That’s right, remember making those little race cars from a wedge of balsa wood and painting it and then racing them? Well, I looked it up and the kits are still being sold by the Boy Scouts for \$3.99 each, with discounts if you purchase larger quantities. Once softball season, summer classes and the solar eclipse have all passed by and the world turns inexorably towards the fall and apple picking and crunching around in leaves I am going to see if I can get the creative minds at the Recovery Center art club to host a Pinewood Derby. It could be the kind of fun we all need when the summer letdown begins to set in around late September and early October.